Thermodynamic and probabilistic computing: implementation evidence
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These systems use controllable physical noise or relaxation to sample from distributions and solve probabilistic subproblems. Noise is part of the operation rather than merely an error to suppress.
| Stage | Mark | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Reference | ● | THRML software environment |
| Physical | ● | Reported stochastic CMOS silicon |
| Integrated | ● | Prototype sampling platforms |
| Scaled | — | No broad scale demonstrated |
| Access | ◐ | Open software and restricted hardware access |
| Operational | — | No recurring external deployment located |
Reference — demonstrated
- Claim
- The matrix credits thermodynamic and probabilistic computing at the Reference stage: THRML software environment.
- Evidence
- THRML provides a JAX library for thermodynamic hypergraphical models. It lets researchers define, train, and test probabilistic computations on conventional machines before mapping them to stochastic hardware.
- Criticism
- Executable semantics do not establish purpose-built hardware, integration, scale, external access, recurring use, or comparative advantage.
- Sources
- THRML repository
Physical — demonstrated
- Claim
- The matrix credits thermodynamic and probabilistic computing at the Physical stage: reported stochastic CMOS silicon.
- Evidence
- Extropic reports X0 stochastic silicon, while Normal Computing reports a CN101 ASIC tape-out. The full mark relies on the disclosed existence of physical silicon, not on vendor performance projections.
- Criticism
- A physical realization does not by itself establish system integration, efficient scaling, external access, recurring use, or comparative advantage.
- Sources
- Extropic hardware; Normal Computing ASICs
Integrated — demonstrated
- Claim
- The matrix credits thermodynamic and probabilistic computing at the Integrated stage: prototype sampling platforms.
- Evidence
- Extropic describes XTR-0 as a prototype platform around its thermodynamic sampling hardware. A platform that joins stochastic compute elements with control and readout crosses the integration threshold, although independent characterization remains sparse.
- Criticism
- A coherent system does not by itself establish efficient scaling, external access, recurring use, or comparative advantage.
- Sources
- Extropic hardware
Access — limited
- Claim
- The matrix credits thermodynamic and probabilistic computing only partially at the Access stage: open software and restricted hardware access.
- Evidence
- The reference software is public, and hardware access is described through early or partner programs rather than an unrestricted public system. The cell is therefore partial.
- Criticism
- The mark is limited on the current public record: open software and restricted hardware access. Access does not establish broad availability, recurring use, workload generality, or comparative advantage.
- Sources
- Extropic hardware; THRML repository
Stages not credited
No public evidence yet shows large, composable arrays running externally selected workloads, or a recurring production deployment with independently reproduced advantage.